With Pujols and Fielder gone from division, door opens for Cincinnati
Getty ImagesAroldis Chapman can give the Cincinnati Reds a big boost if he makes a?successful transition to the starting rotation.
OPINION
By Tony DeMarco
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 5:47 p.m. ET Feb. 2, 2012
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The St. Louis Cardinals barely got through celebrating their unlikely World Series title when Tony La Russa stepped down. Then pitching coach Dave Duncan ? who would have been the veteran dugout presence new manager Mike Matheny could have leaned on ? temporarily stepped aside to be with his ill wife.
And, you may have heard Albert Pujols is an Angel now.
Meanwhile, up in Milwaukee, the Brewers suddenly have gone from having arguably the game's best No. 3-4 hitter combination to something far worse ? at least for the first 50 games of 2012. And by then, it may be too late.
Assuming Ryan Braun's 50-game suspension for violation of the banned substances policy is upheld, free-agent signee Aramis Ramirez will fit in one of those spots, and Rickie Weeks figures to slide up a place or two in the order.
But this fact tells you all you need to know about the Brewers' 2012 hopes: Braun and Prince Fielder combined for 12.9 of the team's total of 24.3 Wins Above Replacement last season.
There's a strong case to be made that the defending-champion Cardinals still are the class of NL Central. After all, who wins a World Series without their ace for an entire season? And now Adam Wainwright returns.
But there also is no denying the opportunity sitting there for the rest of the division ? and the Cincinnati Reds clearly are the team in best position to take advantage.
The Astros are in full-scale rebuilding mode. The Cubs have begun a makeover that figures to take a couple of seasons. The Pirates finally could crack the .500 mark, but 90 wins and contention is a far-fetched proposition after their 25-47 second half in 2011.
But the Reds won a division title and 91 games two seasons ago, and after a 2011 fallback, are poised for a rebound.
Admittedly, it's been a rather ragged recent history for the franchise that gave us the Big Red Machine. The 2010 division title marked the Reds' only winning season since 2000. Their last playoff win came in 1995 ? Barry Larkin's MVP year, and Davey Johnson's last as Reds manager.
They have changed managers seven times since then (not counting Ray Knight's one-day interim gig in 2003), and current skipper Dusty Baker has had only one winning season in four, and sits four games under .500 at 322-326 as a Red.
But Robert Castellini remains one of the game's under-the-radar top-quality owners, and has a deep desire to restore the franchise. He's pushed up the payroll by about one-third since taking over in 2005, and it now sits in the $80-plus-million range.
That's not Phillies'-like by any means, but it is enough to build a consistent contender in the National League ? especially while the Dodgers, Mets and Cubs flounder ? and where there is far more year-to-year standings fluidity.
The Reds have built with a solid young big-league nucleus, and have had one of the game's deepest minor-league talent pools for the past few seasons. But sensing a win-now opportunity before Joey Votto's possible free-agent departure after 2013, general manager Walt Jocketty made some changes.
The big move was giving up some of that talent lode ? 1B Yonder Alonso, C Yasmani Grandal and RHP Brad Boxberger ? along with enigmatic Edinson Volquez, to land Mat Latos from San Diego.
Latos slipped a bit in 2010, when he may have been a victim of a big workload increase in his 2009 breakout season. The switch in home ballparks also isn't one you'd prefer to make. But Latos is only 24, won't be eligible for arbitration until after this season, and should top this rotation along with Johnny Cueto, who could break out after being limited to 24 starts in 2011 due to injury.
Both Homer Bailey and Mike Leake showed solid development last season and also should be double-figures winners in 2012. Bronson Arroyo's ERA floated to a too-high 5.07 in 2011, but there is something to say for a No. 4-5 type who approaches 200 innings.
The rotation wild card is Aroldis Chapman. Nobody knows for certain just what the 24-year-old Cuban left-hander will turn out to be, but after often showing big velocity drops in the second of back-to-back relief appearances, he appears best-suited to be a starter ? which is what Jocketty has said all along. Any kind of breakout from Chapman, and the Reds could add a dominant left-handed presence for 130-150 innings.
The exchange of free-agent closers ? Ryan Madson for Francisco Cordero ? should be favorable, and Madson came on a reasonable one-year, $8-million deal. And the setup crew is deep even without Chapman ? Logan Ondrusek, Nick Masset, Jose Arredondo and Sam LeCure from the right side, and underrated Sean Marshall and Bill Bray from the left side.
As top-heavy as the Reds offense was in 2011 ? with Brandon Phillips, Votto and Jay Bruce doing the heavy damage ? it did finish tied for second in the NL in runs scored behind the Cardinals.And here's how it can be more potent in 2012:
Unlike last season, there won't be any more time wasted on the Drew Stubbs-as-leadoff hitter idea. That's a thing of the past, and rightfully so given his 205-strikeout 2011. He's best-suited for the No. 6 or No. 7 spot, and the signing of free-agent Ryan Ludwick creates a four-for-three outfield setup that could see Chris Heisey taking away center-field playing time if Stubbs' struggles worsen.
Ramon Hernandez's loss shouldn't be felt if rookie Devin Mesoraco lives up to his status as the game's second-best, big-league-ready catching prospect behind Jesus Montero.
The bar is set low for rookie shortstop Zack Cozart, as his predecessor ? Paul Janish ? hit only .214 with a .259 on-base percentage and .262 slugging percentage in 114 games.
Nobody is certain how much Scott Rolen, 37, has left in the tank coming off shoulder surgery, but maybe it's time for something more from Juan Francisco, who's out of minor-league options. Either way, the Reds should get more offensively out of the third-base spot than they did last year, when Rolen hit only .236 with five homers in 63 games.
Yes, there are more than enough question marks entering spring training. But Baker should have a deeper, better pitching staff than in 2010, and there are enough position-player options to ensure one of the NL's leading offenses.
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